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Iersuko

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2 Fev 2011
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This is an honest question so anyone feel free to share thoughts and opinions on the subject.
What do you think about the U.S. Dollar/Economy and it's direction?..
I have no opinion or agenda yet on the subject. I'm sure we are all aware of all the conflicting info out there though.
 

IJesusChrist

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22 Juil 2008
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Its fucked.

The economy? Fucked.
The banking system? Fucked.
Savings, social security? Fucked.

Paper money? Genius, anyone who wants to go back to trading better re-think that. Edit: Wow I just realized how intelligent the gold standard was.

There is no fix to the economy or the banking system. They were flawed from the get-go and it is amazing they have made it this far. The simple fact that compounded interest is legal baffles me.

I don't even feel that the economy and banking or even SS is worthy of discussing anymore, it's just so flawed. We will suffer a great deal you and I in our future due to the government attempting to 'fix' what needs to die. I do not look forward to living here in the next few decades.
 

Reasonablelogic

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24 Mar 2011
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The economy is designed to fail. Read "Modern Money Mechanics", written, and published by the Federal Reserve. Although not directly, they reveal it themselves. Once you read about how the money system operates, you'd see it's a joke.
 

Iersuko

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2 Fev 2011
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Thank you for your honesty. I needed to gain a little perspective. It'll suck but it'll be for the best. I'll make it a point to read that. Thank you.
 

Sprax

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30 Juin 2009
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Iersuko a dit:
This is an honest question so anyone feel free to share thoughts and opinions on the subject.
What do you think about the U.S. Dollar/Economy and it's direction?..
I have no opinion or agenda yet on the subject. I'm sure we are all aware of all the conflicting info out there though.

Opinion from a European

My impression, without being well read on the subject, the U.S. economy is going downhill atm - but it is not impossible to change.

The U.S. economy wasn't terribly impressive for most of the 1800s and the beginning of the 1900s. After the second world war devastated Europe, the U.S. went up. The war itself kick-started the American economy and the post-war period meant America was the only major economic player, which gave America an enormous amount of influence during this period.

Since then, Europe has recovered and the rest of the world has been modernizing at an extremely fast pace. In relative terms, this means the gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world is closing. Actually the EU has had a bigger economy in terms of GDP for some years now.

In absolute terms, it seems the U.S. itself is in trouble. It appears an overconfidence in the American system has led to a failure to see a need to modernize. This is speculation of course and will be debated by economists for a long time.
 

Sprax

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As for the various opinions that completely write off the current economic system:

Poverty today is luxury compared to life only a few centuries ago. I live in a small apartment but I have access to things like heating, warm water indoors, plumbing, which not even kings used to have access to. More related to technological progress? Partly, but the reason we all (in the “west”) have access to this, is thanks to our current economical system, largely created during the industrial revolution. We’re efficient enough to produce enormously more resources than ever before.

No, the system is not perfect. Far from it. But it’s still the best that has existed thus far in history. The very fact that we have the time to worry about these issues instead of the next meal or whether we’ll freeze to death, demonstrates that fact.

Now that we've taken care of our immediate and basic needs, we can reform the system and focus on the rest, the spiritual etc.
 

IJesusChrist

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22 Juil 2008
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Thats true - we have a HUGE standard of living here. That is more on the personal level. We mass produce at lower cost. I would say that is more a direct outcome of technology and population.

The actual economy though, the way it works - pewp.

Many would kill to get into our "poverty". Even the homeless get fed and drink daily (a lot of money) - go to mexico or india, china and look at poverty there? Horrible.

I think thats a different dynamic and subject than the actual 'economy' of the country... That's more political and sociological.
 

Sprax

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IJesusChrist a dit:
I think thats a different dynamic and subject than the actual 'economy' of the country... That's more political and sociological.
I see the industrial revolution and the recent technological progress we’ve made as being largely based on the current economical system, a system which rewards innovation on the individual level. In other words, a system based on harnessing human selfishness – an apparently innate property - and turning it into something positive.

Seen in this way, while I concede the subjects are different, the issues of technological and industrial development are so closely related to the economical system in which they happen, that they hardly seem distinct.

Having said this, I certainly hope we’ll one day find a better system. I happen to be one of the winners in this system, but it’s through pure luck and that’s hardly satisfactory. My hope is that now that we've taken care of our immediate material needs, we will focus on what makes life worthwhile, rather than possible.

Btw, I always enjoy your posts IJesusChrist, you're one of the more interesting characters on this forum.
 

IJesusChrist

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I am wondering what you consider a winner in this system... It's an odd label. :)

I agree with you, in some degree - the technology and 'ease' of our daily lives now is due to capitalism. Which is suppose to be the basis of our economy.

Person A hires person B to make X# trinkets.

Person A pays person B 10 dollars for 10 trinkets made (or 10 hours worked).

Person A sells 10 trinkets for 11$ total.

Person A & B have both just been on both sides of capitalism.

The thing with capitalism is someone is always, in some way or another, no matter how indirect, manipulating someone else for profit. Even if your boss is your best friend, in one way or another, s/he is making profit from your body and mind. You are his/her tool, in a sense. That may seem bleak - but in an objectifiable view, you will agree.

Now, the economy I see as different than capitalism. The economy is a government intervening within the capitalistic system in order to "stabilize" the dispersal of wealth, make it balanced, and not let any party control a great majority. The economy is run by banks and lenders - which dictate the federal money - which ultimately their power comes from interest.

Person (or entitiy) A takes 10 dollars from Bank.

Bank then requires person to pay back 10 * Z amount back.

In a closed system, where does Z come from? Person A cannot "Make" money from nothing - that is called counterfeiting. Only the bank can 'make' money from nothing. Where does Z come from?

This simple idea is why every "economy" we have seen in the past 100 years is destined to fail. It is astounding, however, that ours has lasted so long - it may be the fact that we just don't give a shit that our debt is in the trillions (aka ignored).

If a country was not allowed to have debt no economy of any "1st world country" would be able to exist through an entire fiscal year without destroying another's economy. :D

Its all rather funny how simple it is - just a numbers game - but how exponentially complex it gets when you put in greed, emotion, and morality.

PS. thanks, I think some of my ideas are worth sharing.
 

darkwolfunseen

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Looong and crazy story short, we'll be alright, but we won't go back to the peak of the early 2000's for quite some time.

To explain simply, thinking of the flow of money as a game of musical chairs. While the music is playing (the money is moving through credit systems and savings reserves in the bank), more people can play in the economy, than there are places to support them. However, once the music stops (the creditworthiness of investors is raised, economic devastation, etc), only a few people sit down to collect their money. The rest of the people who invested into a spot don't have one. Basically, you're investment was sucked up to uphold a flawed system in times of panic, while making you fistfuls of money in golden flush periods.

The explanation above explains the very basic point that, yes economic occurences have patterns, but what's more interesting is they are dual layered. This means that the economy not only has trenches and highs every decade or so, but also every century or so. Therefore, what we saw in the late 90's and early 2000's was the up tick for both the decade and century upclick, and then the drop of both in 2008. Therefore we will have another decade uptick (hopefully 2013-2015), but not anywhere at the level of the previous "golden age".

This coupled with the rise of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, as well as the dollars devaluation (being replaced by the yuan and the pound), leads America on a bad path. Does it mean that we should all be scared for the collapse of the US government? No. All that means is that the areas of high growth world-wide will occur in other places (typically does that are not based on a service-based economy like the US). So if the US (more likely investors and the government), can capitalize on the shifting investment opportunities internationally, the US will be more than fine. HOWEVER, if the same egomaniacal game is played, where the US attempts to economically power play the world as it does occasionally politically, there may be severe ramifications in the areas of real estate, state/federal bonds, and dollar valuation. So in that worse case scenario, housing prices will still fall while cost of goods will rise, leading people to take their English skills to other countries in order to earn a higher wage. That would be the greatest irony, having outsourcing occur to the point where US employees leave altogether in order to go to another location in the world were their mediocre skills are regarded as fantastic.


Sorry for the long rant, but it is an expansive topic. To summarize my answer:

For the US Economy:
40% - Integration into a New world economy as a world economic leader (conspiracy theories aside, it's pretty obvious that's where we're heading.)
30% - Countries begin realizing bargaining agreements to be more beneficial. America's ratify CAFTA and more (compared to just current NAFTA), EU continues adding countries, Africa is unified, Russia creates Post-Soviet Union country agreements, and the Asia-Pacific rim signs trade agreements. Each continent becomes a competitor as a whole, against each sector of the world. America's role is minimized because of it being harnessed into agreements by the rest of the Americas (Central and South)
20% - Stagnation and poor political planning leaves us overburdened by our own requirements (minimum wage, credit restrictions, accounting differences compared to world wide standard), further escalating economic downfall
10% - America becomes obsolete due to Asia and London Exchanges becoming the global universals. Westernization looked down upon as a culture backlash occurs. Continued economic downfall.
10% - Due to escalating nervousness about fossil fuel depletion as well as economic downturns in relation to the dollar, World War three occurs in order to combat the uneasiness of the world's perception of the Middle East. Self-explanatory as to the results of that on the economy in the nuclear age.
 

IJesusChrist

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I hope you can see what you are saying, on a grand scale...

When you understand economics on your level, you forget to see what it is. You can claim we will "be okay" but for a flawed system with trillions in debt and no attempt to pay it back (or even talk about it) isn't going to end well. Eventually the cards will have to fall.

To be honest your post makes me slightly pissed off.

Federal trade agreements - that is too inside the box for me. There has been too many chalk lines drawn within our political and economical system to make reliable, understandable, and most of all - fair.
 

darkwolfunseen

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It makes sense that it angers you, because the system is unfair and unjust. However, it is what it is, saying that it will definitely be horrible negates the possibility of anything else.
 

Sprax

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@ IJesusChrist

This is a long one. :)

IJesusChrist a dit:
I am wondering what you consider a winner in this system... It's an odd label. :)

Perhaps. :)

It’s interesting how discussions on complicated topics often tend to border on being about semantics.

So what’s a winner?

Smartass answer
Depends on the scale against which you’re measuring.

Slightly more informative answer
In my last post I suppose I was referring to being a “winner” in terms of the capitalist system in which the goal seems to be to make money. I’ve been lucky to be born in a relatively prosperous part of the world and in a well-off family, so in that sense I’m one of the winners in this system.

Slightly deeper answer
Having said that, measuring success in terms of economical success is of very limited use. For instance, the above doesn’t take into account the benefits I have from living in a society with liberal legislation, which allows me to do almost anything I want with my life, or a whole host of other things.

My guess is our obsession with money and resources – take for instance the huge weight and importance we place on something like GDP – is due to old ways of thinking, born in a time when resources were far more limited and our immediate needs were our only concern.

Being rich certainly does not equal being happy, fulfilled or really anything positive. What it does mean is not having to worry about money. Imho, just like you only need to be smart enough to handle university, or tall enough to play basketball, you only need enough money to be happy. As long as a lack of money is not a hindrance, it doesn’t contribute much. What we need to do is to move away from our obsession with resources and focus on measuring quality of life.

Person (or entitiy) A takes 10 dollars from Bank.

Bank then requires person to pay back 10 * Z amount back.

In a closed system, where does Z come from? Person A cannot "Make" money from nothing - that is called counterfeiting. Only the bank can 'make' money from nothing. Where does Z come from?

The economy is much like an eco system where money is constantly circulating. Much like an eco system, it cannot be demonstrated by only looking at half the system.

So where does Z come from? Or phrased differently: How would A pay B, the Bank?

A would have to create value. Since in this example there cannot be any circulation, the bank would have to accept the goods or services offered by A as payment, or a relevant legal document, such as a document transferring ownership of a commodity.

In a more complex example, A would sell goods and services to C for money and use this to pay the bank. The bank in turn has expenditures and returns profits to shareholders who in turn spend money, thus returning the money into circulation.

So, Z is the additional value created by A:s work.

What about the money created by banks?

As you point out, banks are allowed to lend money they do not currently have. So where does this money come from?

Example: Most young people cannot afford to buy a house, but they will earn enough money in their life time to pay for one. The solution is to borrow money. The bank lends the money and gradually receives the same amount back, plus interest in order to cover its costs and to make a profit.

Where does the extra money, the interest, come from?

If we assume there is a set amount of money in the world, we would constantly have to create more. The confusion seems to arise from thinking in terms of money instead of resources or value. As the young person who took the loan work, they create value – or more “money”.

So the banks created money = some of the future work of the person taking the loan.

The problem with the system only arises when people are unable to pay back because the value they are able to create is not sufficient to cover interest. The subprime mortgage crises started because banks would lend money to people who were not expected to and consequently not able to pay back. Since banks lend money they do not have, they collapsed when a large amount of people defaulted at the same time.

This is why government regulation is crucial. Banks should not be allowed to lend money without good security or good expectation of being paid back. There will always be inherent risk, but without this system the young person in the example above would not have been able to borrow money. So really, interest is the basis for our economy.
 

IJesusChrist

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Your explanation makes sense - a loan cannot be payed back in full in a closed system, so some sort of value must be contributed to the interest. A share in a company, a property, something.

But when was the last time you payed back a bank by washing dishes, watching their kids, or digging up gold for them?

This can only happen on a huge level - with corporations and federal entities (i.e. giving shares or something of value to the bank) A single person will not be able to negotiate anything other than a paper dollar to a bank (or something of direct value like gold). EDIT: I suppose this can also happen on the individual level - aka foreclosure.

So the problem, is indeed, when someone cannot or does not pay back the interest. But this has to occur due to limited resources (there is no such thing as unlimited resources).

However your post has made me see the fact that we are continually mining, growing, and creating value - (gold, food, minerals) that money can be made in order to represent these new forms of value that essentially "appeared" into the system.

I think the problem alot of people don't see is that the world is a closed system - it doesn't end at your countries borders. Once things leave and enter the borders they create debt and surplus somewhere. With everyone living under constant financial gradients, there will always be disagreement - this is just going to be true for any system with a population greater than one.
 

Sprax

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IJesusChrist a dit:
Your explanation makes sense - a loan cannot be payed back in full in a closed system, so some sort of value must be contributed to the interest. A share in a company, a property, something.

But when was the last time you payed back a bank by washing dishes, watching their kids, or digging up gold for them?

This can only happen on a huge level - with corporations and federal entities (i.e. giving shares or something of value to the bank) A single person will not be able to negotiate anything other than a paper dollar to a bank (or something of direct value like gold). EDIT: I suppose this can also happen on the individual level - aka foreclosure.
This is the normal way to pay back loans. Except in a more complex system you wouldn’t trade actual commodities, but money that represents them. (A) might watch (C):s kids and pay the (B)ank with the money received for those services. The (B)ank not having any children, would probably pay for other services, such as legal advice. And so on.

So the problem, is indeed, when someone cannot or does not pay back the interest. But this has to occur due to limited resources (there is no such thing as unlimited resources).
Resources are limited, but so are loans. I’d like to see a loan for “an unlimited amount of money” stand up in court. ;) A loan for a set amount of money requires a set amount of resources to be paid off. So as long as interest doesn’t rise faster than the debtor can produce value through working, the loan can therefore be paid. A bank charging interest is no different from you charging* a salary when you work.

However your post has made me see the fact that we are continually mining, growing, and creating value - (gold, food, minerals) that money can be made in order to represent these new forms of value that essentially "appeared" into the system.
Actually we don’t have to produce more money to represent new value. An increase in productivity increases the value of the money supply. You might think of every dollar as representing a certain percentage of the economy. If you produce more, that dollar becomes worth more.


I think the problem alot of people don't see is that the world is a closed system - it doesn't end at your countries borders. Once things leave and enter the borders they create debt and surplus somewhere. With everyone living under constant financial gradients, there will always be disagreement - this is just going to be true for any system with a population greater than one.
Well the system can only encompass all of humanity at most, so in that sense it is a closed "eco system". As for borders, I think they are largely imaginary. They do create certain legal obstacles, but the economical eco system transcends the borders between countries just as it does states, counties, cities etc.

* What's the word here, charging a salary? Taking? Something else?
 

IJesusChrist

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It seems you have studied economics more than me. You make it sound a bit more sound than it has been bouncing around in my head...

Still I'll wear my anarchy patch and spray paint on the sides of banks until I die. :D
 

Sprax

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IJesusChrist a dit:
It seems you have studied economics more than me. You make it sound a bit more sound than it has been bouncing around in my head...

Still I'll wear my anarchy patch and spray paint on the sides of banks until I die. :D
As you should. :D Imo, while we should be open to examining our views through discussion, we should also stand for what we believe in.
 
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